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The quality and characteristics of industrial and consumption goods are often not revealed until after consumption. However, the decision to buy these products must be made before buying. Many strategies and instruments for signalling and screening have been developed in the economic world in order to overcome potential market failure due to insufficient quality detection. In many situations, efficient incentives and quality revelation are given to the market players by contracts that structure the process and payments of the transaction.
The papers collected here are, with three exceptions, those presented at a conference on probability and causation held at the University of California at Irvine on July 15-19, 1985. The exceptions are that David Freedman and Abner Shimony were not able to contribute the papers that they presented to this volume, and that Clark Glymour who was not able to attend the conference did contribute a paper. We would like to thank the National Science Foundation and the School of Humanities of the University of California at Irvine for generous support. WILLIAM HARPER University of Western Ontario BRIAN SKYRMS University of California at Irvine VII INTRODUCTION TO CAUSATION, CHANCE, AND CREDENCE The search for causes is so central to science that it has sometimes been taken as the defining attribute of the scientific enterprise. Yet even after twenty-five centuries of philosophical analysis the meaning of "cause" is still a matter of controversy, among scientists as well as philosophers. Part of the problem is that the servicable concepts of causation built out of Necessity, Sufficiency, Locality, and Temporal Precedence were constructed for a deterministic world-view which has been obsolete since the advent of quantum theory. A physically credible theory of causation must be, at basis, statistical. And statistical analyses of caus ation may be of interest even when an underlying deterministic theory is assumed, as in classical statistical mechanics.
Richard Pettigrew offers an extended investigation into a particular way of justifying the rational principles that govern our credences (or degrees of belief). The main principles that he justifies are the central tenets of Bayesian epistemology, though many other related principles are discussed along the way. These are: Probabilism, the claims that credences should obey the laws of probability; the Principal Principle, which says how credences in hypotheses about the objective chances should relate to credences in other propositions; the Principle of Indifference, which says that, in the absence of evidence, we should distribute our credences equally over all possibilities we entertain; and Conditionalization, the Bayesian account of how we should plan to respond when we receive new evidence. Ultimately, then, this book is a study in the foundations of Bayesianism. To justify these principles, Pettigrew looks to decision theory. He treats an agent's credences as if they were a choice she makes between different options, gives an account of the purely epistemic utility enjoyed by different sets of credences, and then appeals to the principles of decision theory to show that, when epistemic utility is measured in this way, the credences that violate the principles listed above are ruled out as irrational. The account of epistemic utility set out here is the veritist's: the sole fundamental source of epistemic utility for credences is their accuracy. Thus, Pettigrew conducts an investigation in the version of Iepistemic utility theory known as accuracy-first epistemology. The book can also be read as an extended reply on behalf of the veritist to the evidentialist's objection that veritism cannot account for certain evidential principles of credal rationality, such as the Principal Principle, the Principle of Indifference, and Conditionalization.
Nicholas Ray stumbles upon the job of a lifetime, or so he thinks. He soon finds out that working for Lou Bramwell is more trouble than it’s worth. One night of misfortune leaves an undercover cop dead and a co-worker behind bars for murder. Nick actively plans a jailbreak, which introduces him to two crooked detectives who seem to be plotting Nick’s every move. In his search for answers Nick uncovers a decade old mystery of deceit, revenge and murder.
In a not-so-distant future, the murder of a notorious neuroscientist threatens the closure of Credence, a federal corporation where the powerful minds of exceptional individuals—the Believers—are harnessed into mass beliefs capable of teleporting spaceships to the other side of the universe. To avoid the death of the colons on the outer outposts for lack of supplies, Detective Trumaine is only given three days to solve the case. However, because of the elusive nature of the murderer—a Believer and a telepath—the investigation proves more difficult than ever, and Trumaine faces disaster. When, desperate to catch the murderer, Trumaine agrees to enter the Feed—the very same medium the Believers unconsciously inhabit when building the mass belief—a third contender enters the arena, that messes up with painful events from his past. If it’s friend or foe, that remains to be seen. It's a science fiction novel of about 74,000 words.
Tiernan grew up with wealth and privilege, but not love or guidence. After her parents' deaths, she goes to live with her father's stepbrother and his two sons. As the three of them take her under their wing, teach her to work and survive in the remote woods, she slowly finds her place among them. And she realizes that lines blur and rules become easy to break when no one is watching.